Below is an edited transcript of the experts' analysis on
CNBC-TV18.
Q: Is announcement by the big three telecom giants of staying away from the auction along predictable lines or is it a big surprise?
Rajan: Yes, it is a bit of a surprise because we had been hearing all along that RIL was intending to enter with a pan-India presence and pick up that to marry it with their pan-India broadband. So, it might be a bit of a disappointment for the government because I think they were expected to be the only telecom with a pan-India presence. All the others I believe had expressed more of a regional preference to pick up a few of the circles.
Q: What is your opinion on why this announcement was made? Is it just a strategy to get some top-up spectrum?
Rajan: Currently, there is a lot of uncertainty in the industry thanks to the one-time spectrum price that is being bandied about and the whole issue of refarming. The level of uncertainty is so high in the industry with regards to spectrum availability and pricing that some operators might choose to exit, perhaps as an alternate plan.
Q: What is your sense as far as participatory interest is concerned?
Rajan: All along COAI has made the point that the reserve price is extremely exorbitant and it would be very difficult to make a cogent business case at those price-levels. I think the fact that you have seen three major players abstain probably explains that. Now, when you look at the rest of the incumbent players, you will find that most of them will participate but again only to pick up a few circles that might be of interest to them.
But again it's going to be extremely difficult to make a business case at these prices and that's exactly what you will see perhaps as the auction begins. I think the big bidders have left and those who are going to be participating will be probably more prudent in the bidding process.
Q: What are your reactions about MTS not putting in an application?
Khanna: There is no case to bid for auction at this price of Rs 14,000 crore. I have been telling the industry that new players have no chance if they buy the spectrum at this price. If you buy the spectrum at this price, the tariffs are bound to go up. The competition with the established players who have the spectrum will not stand anywhere. So, I think it is a wise step done by RIL or Sistema-Shyam not to enter into the fray because there is no scope.
Q: Given the nature of participation at this point of time, both the GSM and CDMA operators have stated very clearly to the government this is not a revenue game and they are not going to participate like they did in the 3G auction. Should the government be worried in any manner?
Khanna: The government is thinking of covering its entire budget deficit from selling the spectrum auction. It is not meant for that purpose. The steps taken by the government are not correct because this will definitely increase tariffs. I think all these three companies who refused to come up for bidding, have taken a very wise decision, because there is no business case. The new players will not be able to establish themselves at all at this price.
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